Table of Contents
Why subscription churn should end split tests
The checkout obsession
Most split tests end at checkout.
A winner is chosen based on:
* Conversion rate * Front-end revenue * EPC * Cost per acquisition
In subscription funnels, checkout is not the finish line.
It is the starting point.
CBSplit was built to treat churn as a decisive signal.
Subscription churn reveals misalignment
Churn is not random.
It often reflects:
* Messaging mismatch * Billing confusion * Expectation gaps * Value misalignment
If a variant increases churn, it signals structural weakness.
Continuing to scale that variant magnifies damage.
Early wins can hide churn instability
A variant may:
* Increase initial conversions * Boost trial signups * Improve front-end ROAS
If it also:
* Reduces first rebill success * Increases cancellation rates * Shortens subscription lifespan
It weakens long-term profitability.
CBSplit evaluates subscription durability before declaring victory.
Churn compounds over time
Even small increases in churn:
* Reduce cohort-based LTV * Lower net revenue * Shift breakeven points * Alter scaling thresholds
Churn-driven erosion is gradual but powerful.
Short-term metrics rarely capture compounding loss.
Subscription churn impacts processor health
High churn often correlates with:
* Increased refunds * Chargeback risk * Customer dissatisfaction * Support strain
Ignoring churn can create operational instability.
CBSplit integrates churn signals into test evaluation.
A churn spike should invalidate early results
If a variant shows:
* Statistically significant conversion lift * Increased front-end revenue
But also shows:
* Higher early cancellation * Weaker rebill survival * Lower cohort retention
The lift is misleading.
Churn should trigger re-evaluation or termination of the test.
Lifecycle-aware testing changes decision timing
In subscription funnels, evaluation must include:
* First rebill cycle * Early churn stabilization * Refund window closure * Cohort-level retention patterns
Ending tests before these signals mature produces incomplete decisions.
CBSplit extends test duration to capture lifecycle impact.
Durable revenue outweighs rapid growth
Short-term growth without retention leads to:
* Inflated metrics * Fragile scaling * Margin erosion * Increased risk
Subscription churn is a direct measure of durability.
Tests that ignore churn reward instability.