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====== Why subscription churn should end split tests ======

===== The checkout obsession =====

Most split tests end at checkout.

A winner is chosen based on:

  
  * Conversion rate
  * Front-end revenue
  * EPC
  * Cost per acquisition

In subscription funnels, checkout is not the finish line.

It is the starting point.

CBSplit was built to treat churn as a decisive signal.

===== Subscription churn reveals misalignment =====

Churn is not random.

It often reflects:

  
  * Messaging mismatch
  * Billing confusion
  * Expectation gaps
  * Value misalignment

If a variant increases churn, it signals structural weakness.

Continuing to scale that variant magnifies damage.

===== Early wins can hide churn instability =====

A variant may:

  
  * Increase initial conversions
  * Boost trial signups
  * Improve front-end ROAS

If it also:

  
  * Reduces first rebill success
  * Increases cancellation rates
  * Shortens subscription lifespan

It weakens long-term profitability.

CBSplit evaluates subscription durability before declaring victory.

===== Churn compounds over time =====

Even small increases in churn:

  
  * Reduce cohort-based LTV
  * Lower net revenue
  * Shift breakeven points
  * Alter scaling thresholds

Churn-driven erosion is gradual but powerful.

Short-term metrics rarely capture compounding loss.

===== Subscription churn impacts processor health =====

High churn often correlates with:

  
  * Increased refunds
  * Chargeback risk
  * Customer dissatisfaction
  * Support strain

Ignoring churn can create operational instability.

CBSplit integrates churn signals into test evaluation.

===== A churn spike should invalidate early results =====

If a variant shows:

  
  * Statistically significant conversion lift
  * Increased front-end revenue

But also shows:

  
  * Higher early cancellation
  * Weaker rebill survival
  * Lower cohort retention

The lift is misleading.

Churn should trigger re-evaluation or termination of the test.

===== Lifecycle-aware testing changes decision timing =====

In subscription funnels, evaluation must include:

  
  * First rebill cycle
  * Early churn stabilization
  * Refund window closure
  * Cohort-level retention patterns

Ending tests before these signals mature produces incomplete decisions.

CBSplit extends test duration to capture lifecycle impact.

===== Durable revenue outweighs rapid growth =====

Short-term growth without retention leads to:

  
  * Inflated metrics
  * Fragile scaling
  * Margin erosion
  * Increased risk

Subscription churn is a direct measure of durability.

Tests that ignore churn reward instability.