Table of Contents
Why LTV is impossible to calculate with basic trackers
The promise of LTV
Lifetime value is often presented as the ultimate metric.
It promises clarity. It promises predictability. It promises smarter scaling.
Yet most reported LTV numbers are fiction.
CBSplit was built to explain why.
Basic trackers only see the first transaction
Most tracking tools are front-loaded.
They capture:
- Page views
- Clicks
- Initial conversions
- First purchase revenue
They do not reliably see:
- Rebills
- Refunds
- Chargebacks
- Subscription churn
Without these, LTV is guesswork.
LTV unfolds over time, not at checkout
True LTV is not known at the moment of conversion.
It emerges through:
- Successful rebills
- Upsell retention
- Refund avoidance
- Churn timing
Any system that reports LTV instantly is estimating, not measuring.
CBSplit waits for outcomes.
Attribution breaks across the customer lifecycle
Basic trackers rely on browser state.
Over time:
- Cookies expire
- Devices change
- Sessions reset
- Domains fragment
When attribution breaks, revenue history fragments.
CBSplit anchors LTV to order and customer identifiers, not browsers.
Refunds and chargebacks corrupt LTV math
Basic LTV calculations often ignore:
- Partial refunds
- Delayed refunds
- Chargeback reversals
- Processor fees
These distort revenue quality.
CBSplit calculates LTV after financial resolution, not before it.
Subscription behavior is non-linear
Subscriptions rarely behave predictably.
They include:
- Failed rebills
- Grace periods
- Plan changes
- Temporary pauses
Basic trackers flatten this complexity into averages.
CBSplit tracks subscription state transitions explicitly.
Traffic quality changes over time
LTV is not static.
It varies by:
- Traffic source
- Offer path
- Retry exposure
- Upsell behavior
Basic trackers collapse all users into one blended metric.
CBSplit preserves segmentation across the lifecycle.
Why basic trackers stop trying
Most tracking tools stop short because:
- Server-side data is harder
- Time-based truth is delayed
- Reconciliation is complex
- Dashboards prefer instant numbers
CBSplit was built to tolerate delay and complexity.
