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====== Why LTV is impossible to calculate with basic trackers ======

===== The promise of LTV =====

Lifetime value is often presented as the ultimate metric.

It promises clarity.
It promises predictability.
It promises smarter scaling.

Yet most reported LTV numbers are fiction.

CBSplit was built to explain why.

===== Basic trackers only see the first transaction =====

Most tracking tools are front-loaded.

They capture:  
  * Page views
  * Clicks
  * Initial conversions
  * First purchase revenue

They do not reliably see:  
  * Rebills
  * Refunds
  * Chargebacks
  * Subscription churn

Without these, LTV is guesswork.

===== LTV unfolds over time, not at checkout =====

True LTV is not known at the moment of conversion.

It emerges through:  
  * Successful rebills
  * Upsell retention
  * Refund avoidance
  * Churn timing

Any system that reports LTV instantly is estimating, not measuring.

CBSplit waits for outcomes.

===== Attribution breaks across the customer lifecycle =====

Basic trackers rely on browser state.

Over time:  
  * Cookies expire
  * Devices change
  * Sessions reset
  * Domains fragment

When attribution breaks, revenue history fragments.

CBSplit anchors LTV to order and customer identifiers, not browsers.

===== Refunds and chargebacks corrupt LTV math =====

Basic LTV calculations often ignore:  
  * Partial refunds
  * Delayed refunds
  * Chargeback reversals
  * Processor fees

These distort revenue quality.

CBSplit calculates LTV after financial resolution, not before it.

===== Subscription behavior is non-linear =====

Subscriptions rarely behave predictably.

They include:  
  * Failed rebills
  * Grace periods
  * Plan changes
  * Temporary pauses

Basic trackers flatten this complexity into averages.

CBSplit tracks subscription state transitions explicitly.

===== Traffic quality changes over time =====

LTV is not static.

It varies by:  
  * Traffic source
  * Offer path
  * Retry exposure
  * Upsell behavior

Basic trackers collapse all users into one blended metric.

CBSplit preserves segmentation across the lifecycle.

===== Why basic trackers stop trying =====

Most tracking tools stop short because:  
  * Server-side data is harder
  * Time-based truth is delayed
  * Reconciliation is complex
  * Dashboards prefer instant numbers

CBSplit was built to tolerate delay and complexity.