Split tests are designed to produce winners.

Higher conversion rate. Better EPC. Improved front-end revenue.

Traffic is shifted to the winner. Budgets are increased. Scaling begins.

And sometimes, profit declines.

CBSplit was built to explain this paradox.

Most split tests measure:

* Click-through rate
* Conversion rate
* Immediate revenue
* Cost per acquisition

They rarely measure:

* Refund-adjusted revenue
* Rebill survival
* Long-term churn
* Processor risk

An event-level winner is not always an outcome-level winner.

Variants that use:

* Urgency pressure
* Scarcity framing
* Simplified billing disclosure
* Emotional triggers

Often increase initial conversions.

They can also increase:

* Refund likelihood
* Customer regret
* Early churn
* Support friction

Winning the test may plant the seeds of loss.

A winning variant may:

* Increase average order value
* Boost upsell acceptance
* Raise short-term EPC

If backend stability declines:

* Refund rates rise
* Rebills fail
* Chargebacks increase

Net revenue drops over time.

CBSplit recalculates performance after backend resolution.

Split tests often run in short windows.

Short windows favor:

* Immediate behavior
* Impulse-driven buyers
* Early revenue spikes

Long-term profitability depends on:

* Customer alignment
* Subscription durability
* Refund containment

A short-term winner can become a long-term liability.

Winning variants may perform well overall while:

* Failing in specific geographies
* Producing high refunds in certain segments
* Causing churn in particular cohorts

Blended results hide structural weaknesses.

CBSplit preserves segmentation to expose them.

When a winner is scaled:

* Traffic volume increases
* Refund clusters grow
* Processor scrutiny rises
* Risk compounds

Minor structural flaws become major financial problems.

CBSplit evaluates scalability before declaring victory.

True profit must account for:

* Refund-adjusted revenue
* Subscription retention
* Payment stability
* Acquisition cost

Winning a split test does not guarantee positive net margin.

CBSplit aligns test evaluation with net revenue truth.