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====== Why upsells distort front-end performance metrics ======

===== The front-end success illusion =====

Front-end metrics are often treated as the primary measure of funnel health.

Conversion rate looks strong.
Cost per acquisition appears stable.
Initial revenue feels predictable.

Upsells quietly distort all of these signals.

CBSplit was built to reveal this distortion.

===== Front-end metrics stop before upsells begin =====

Most front-end metrics are calculated at the first conversion.

They capture:  
  * Page views
  * Clicks
  * Initial purchase conversions

They do not account for:  
  * Upsell acceptance
  * Downsell recovery
  * Subscription attachment
  * Post-purchase revenue

Yet these outcomes heavily influence perceived performance.

===== Upsells inflate perceived conversion value =====

When upsells perform well, they:  
  * Increase average order value
  * Mask weak front-end intent
  * Offset declining conversion rates

This creates the illusion that the front end is strong.

In reality, the upsell is compensating for front-end weakness.

CBSplit separates these effects.

===== Upsells change buyer intent interpretation =====

A buyer who converts on the front end but rejects all upsells behaves differently from one who accepts them.

Front-end metrics treat both as equal conversions.

CBSplit does not.

It evaluates intent through post-purchase behavior.

===== Upsells hide refund risk =====

Aggressive upsells often lead to:  
  * Buyer confusion
  * Expectation mismatch
  * Post-purchase regret
  * Increased refunds

Front-end metrics do not reflect this risk.

CBSplit tracks revenue after refund resolution.

===== Upsells skew traffic quality analysis =====

Upsells can make low-quality traffic appear profitable.

This happens when:  
  * Cheap traffic converts poorly on the front end
  * Strong upsells compensate for weak intent

Front-end metrics credit the traffic.

Upsells carry the load.

CBSplit distinguishes traffic-driven performance from upsell-driven performance.

===== Upsells delay truth =====

Upsell revenue often arrives after:  
  * Additional steps
  * Extra confirmation screens
  * Subscription activation

Front-end metrics update instantly.

Upsell outcomes arrive later.

This timing gap delays accurate evaluation.

CBSplit aligns performance measurement with outcome timing.

===== Why traditional dashboards encourage distortion =====

Dashboards emphasize what is fast and visible.

They prefer:  
  * Immediate conversions
  * Clean charts
  * Real-time updates

Upsell complexity breaks these models.

CBSplit accepts complexity to preserve truth.