Table of Contents
Why refund windows break test conclusions
The premature winner problem
Most split tests conclude before the refund window closes.
Variant A converts better. Variant B underperforms. A winner is declared.
But refund windows exist for a reason.
Revenue is not final at checkout.
CBSplit was built to evaluate tests after financial resolution, not before it.
Refund windows delay revenue truth
Many offers include:
* 30-day refund periods * 60-day guarantees * Conditional return policies * Satisfaction guarantees
During this period, revenue is provisional.
Tests that end before refund windows close measure incomplete outcomes.
Impulse-driven variants often win early
Variants that use:
* Urgency-based messaging * Scarcity pressure * Emotional framing * Simplified billing language
Frequently increase initial conversions.
They may also increase:
* Buyer remorse * Post-purchase dissatisfaction * Refund submission rates
Refund windows expose this misalignment.
Refund timing reshapes net revenue
Refunds typically appear:
* Days after purchase * After product use * After billing clarity * After upsell review
A front-end winner may look profitable before refunds are processed.
After refund reconciliation, net revenue can reverse.
CBSplit recalculates performance using refund-adjusted results.
Cohort-level refund behavior matters
Refund impact is not uniform.
Different cohorts may show:
* Higher refund rates in specific geographies * Higher dissatisfaction from certain traffic sources * Refund clustering from aggressive angles
Short tests average this behavior out.
Refund windows reveal structural weaknesses.
Scaling before refund closure compounds risk
When a test winner is scaled prematurely:
* Traffic volume increases * Refund exposure multiplies * Processor scrutiny rises * Net profitability shrinks
Refund windows often expose fragility after scaling decisions are made.
CBSplit aligns scaling decisions with refund maturity.
Subscription funnels amplify refund distortion
Subscription offers often combine:
* Initial purchase * Trial periods * First rebill cycles * Refund eligibility windows
If tests conclude before these cycles complete, evaluation is incomplete.
CBSplit extends testing horizons beyond initial billing events.
Refund-adjusted metrics redefine winners
True evaluation requires:
* Net revenue after refunds * Cohort-based refund ratios * Rebill-adjusted LTV * Processor-safe performance
A variant that wins before refund closure may lose afterward.
CBSplit prevents premature conclusions.