Table of Contents
Why most split tests ignore customer intent
The metric fixation
Most split tests focus on measurable events.
Clicks. Conversions. Revenue per visitor. EPC.
These metrics are easy to track.
Customer intent is not.
CBSplit was built to surface intent through lifecycle outcomes.
Conversion does not equal intent
A user can convert because of:
* Curiosity * Impulse * Pressure tactics * Confusing billing terms
None of these guarantee commitment.
True intent reveals itself after purchase.
Classic split tests stop before intent becomes visible.
Intent is revealed through behavior over time
Customer intent becomes clearer through:
* Refund behavior * Subscription retention * Rebill success * Upsell acceptance patterns * Support interaction frequency
High-intent customers behave differently from impulse buyers.
CBSplit measures these behavioral signals.
Event-based tests reward surface reactions
Split tests often optimize for:
* Higher click-through * Faster conversions * Shorter decision time
These signals favor emotional triggers.
They do not measure alignment or long-term value.
CBSplit separates reaction from commitment.
Traffic intent varies across segments
Different traffic sources produce different intent profiles.
Some segments bring:
* Educated buyers * Clear expectations * Lower refund probability
Others bring:
* Broad curiosity traffic * Deal-seeking behavior * Higher churn risk
Blended test results hide these differences.
CBSplit preserves segmentation to identify intent patterns.
Subscription funnels amplify intent differences
In subscription models, intent determines:
* Rebill survival * Churn velocity * Lifetime value * Refund frequency
A variant that increases low-intent signups may win early tests and lose over time.
CBSplit evaluates intent through retention and durability.
Messaging affects intent quality
Variants that overpromise may:
* Increase front-end conversions * Attract mismatched buyers * Inflate early revenue
They may also increase:
* Refund rates * Early cancellations * Processor risk
Classic split tests reward persuasive strength.
CBSplit rewards expectation alignment.
Intent is an outcome, not an event
Intent cannot be measured at the click.
It must be inferred from:
* Behavior across time * Financial stability * Cohort retention * Refund-adjusted revenue
Split tests that ignore intent optimize the wrong signal.