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====== Why conversion rate is a dangerous metric ======

===== The simplicity trap =====

Conversion rate is easy to understand.

Visitors arrive.
Some convert.
A percentage is calculated.

Higher percentage feels better.
Lower percentage feels worse.

The simplicity makes it powerful.

It also makes it dangerous.

CBSplit was built because revenue systems cannot be judged by conversion rate alone.

===== Conversion rate ignores revenue quality =====

Conversion rate measures:

  
  * The percentage of visitors who take an action
  * The speed of decision-making
  * The effectiveness of persuasion

It does not measure:

  
  * Refund-adjusted revenue
  * Subscription retention
  * Rebill survival
  * Customer lifetime value
  * Processor risk

A higher conversion rate can still reduce net profit.

===== Aggressive tactics inflate conversion rate =====

Variants that increase urgency or pressure often:

  
  * Boost front-end conversions
  * Increase impulse purchases
  * Lower decision friction

They may also increase:

  
  * Refund requests
  * Early churn
  * Chargeback exposure
  * Support burden

Conversion rate captures the first event.
It ignores downstream consequences.

===== Conversion rate ignores acquisition cost =====

A high conversion rate does not guarantee profitability.

Profit depends on:

  
  * Cost per click
  * Cost per acquisition
  * Net revenue after refunds
  * Rebill-adjusted LTV

A slightly lower conversion rate with stronger retention may generate higher profit.

CBSplit evaluates profitability, not just event efficiency.

===== Conversion rate hides customer intent =====

Not all conversions reflect the same intent.

Some buyers:

  
  * Are aligned and informed
  * Stay subscribed
  * Rarely refund

Others:

  
  * Act impulsively
  * Regret quickly
  * Cancel early

Conversion rate treats both as equal.

CBSplit differentiates through lifecycle outcomes.

===== Blended conversion rates mask segment weakness =====

Aggregated conversion rate averages:

  
  * Different traffic sources
  * Different geographies
  * Different intent levels
  * Different device behaviors

Weak segments hide inside strong averages.

CBSplit preserves segmentation to reveal structural risk.

===== Conversion rate rewards short-term thinking =====

Optimization focused solely on conversion rate encourages:

  
  * Faster decisions
  * Simpler billing framing
  * Aggressive positioning
  * High-pressure tactics

These approaches can degrade long-term stability.

CBSplit aligns optimization with durable revenue.

===== Revenue systems are lifecycle systems =====

True performance requires:

  
  * Refund reconciliation
  * Rebill survival measurement
  * Cohort-based LTV analysis
  * Risk-aware scaling

Conversion rate measures entry.

CBSplit measures endurance.