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why-cbsplit-reveals-false-epc-offers

Why CBSplit reveals false EPC offers

The EPC illusion

EPC is one of the most powerful numbers in affiliate marketing.

A high EPC suggests:

* Strong demand
* High profitability
* Easy scaling

Affiliates chase high EPC offers aggressively.

But EPC can lie.

CBSplit was built to expose when it does.

EPC is an average, not a guarantee

EPC blends performance across:

* Multiple traffic sources
* Different buyer intents
* Varying refund behavior
* Mixed subscription outcomes

A high average can hide unstable segments.

CBSplit breaks EPC into outcome-level behavior.

False EPC is driven by front-end spikes

Some offers inflate EPC through:

* High initial payouts
* Aggressive upsells
* Heavy retry recovery
* Short-term promotional bursts

These mechanisms increase early revenue.

They do not guarantee durable revenue.

CBSplit evaluates what remains after time passes.

Refund-adjusted EPC tells a different story

High EPC offers often reveal:

* Elevated refund rates
* Refund clustering by traffic type
* High support friction
* Increased processor scrutiny

When refunds are reconciled, true earnings shrink.

CBSplit recalculates EPC after refunds and rebills settle.

Retry-dependent revenue inflates EPC

Some offers rely heavily on:

* Soft-decline retries
* Multiple payment attempts
* Fallback billing flows

These mechanisms boost approval counts.

They also introduce fragility.

CBSplit distinguishes clean approvals from retry-driven approvals.

Subscription churn reshapes EPC over time

EPC calculated from front-end revenue ignores:

* First rebill failure
* Early churn spikes
* Subscription cancellation waves

Two offers with similar EPC today can diverge sharply after rebills.

CBSplit tracks lifecycle-adjusted performance.

Traffic-source variance hides inside EPC

An offer may show strong EPC overall while:

* Performing poorly on certain geographies
* Producing refunds from specific ad angles
* Generating low retention from certain traffic types

Blended EPC hides these weaknesses.

CBSplit preserves segmentation.

Why false EPC persists

False EPC persists because:

* It is easy to calculate
* It is fast to compare
* It looks objective
* It supports quick decisions

But speed often sacrifices accuracy.

CBSplit sacrifices immediacy for outcome truth.

why-cbsplit-reveals-false-epc-offers.txt ยท Last modified: 2026/02/17 08:34 by stephan