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why-cbsplit-focuses-on-outcomes-not-events

Why CBSplit focuses on outcomes, not events

The event obsession

Most tracking systems are event-driven.

A click fires an event. A page view fires an event. A button press fires an event.

Dashboards fill up quickly. Charts move in real time.

Yet revenue understanding barely improves.

CBSplit was built to break this pattern.

Events describe activity, not success

Events answer questions like:

  • Did something happen?
  • Where did the user click?
  • Which variation was shown?

They do not answer:

  • Did the payment succeed?
  • Was the order clean or fragile?
  • Did the user refund later?
  • Did revenue survive over time?

Activity is not the same as outcome.

CBSplit makes that distinction explicit.

Funnels can generate events and still fail

A funnel can be full of events:

  • Page views increase
  • Clicks look healthy
  • Conversions appear stable

Yet still produce:

  • High refunds
  • Retry-heavy payments
  • Early subscription churn
  • Processor risk

Event-heavy funnels often hide outcome failures.

CBSplit surfaces them.

Outcomes arrive late and out of order

Real outcomes do not happen instantly.

They arrive:

  • After retries
  • After fulfillment
  • After customer support
  • After rebills
  • After refund windows close

Event-based systems prefer immediacy.

CBSplit tolerates delay because truth is delayed.

Events are cheap. Outcomes are expensive

Events are easy to generate.

Outcomes involve:

  • Money
  • Risk
  • Compliance
  • Accountability

Because outcomes are harder, most tools avoid them.

CBSplit embraces outcome complexity instead of simplifying it away.

CBSplit treats events as inputs, not conclusions

CBSplit does not ignore events.

It uses them as signals.

But decisions are driven by:

  • Final payment resolution
  • Net revenue after refunds
  • Subscription survival
  • Long-term customer behavior

Events inform. Outcomes decide.

Outcome-based systems enable real optimization

When optimization is outcome-driven, you can:

  • Fix retry logic instead of boosting clicks
  • Improve offer alignment instead of inflating conversions
  • Protect accounts instead of chasing volume
  • Scale revenue quality, not just traffic

Event-based optimization cannot do this reliably.

Why traditional tools stop at events

Most tools focus on events because:

  • Events are immediate
  • Events are browser-visible
  • Events are easy to visualize
  • Events look impressive in dashboards

Outcomes are slower, messier, and harder to sell.

CBSplit was built for operators, not dashboards.

why-cbsplit-focuses-on-outcomes-not-events.txt ยท Last modified: 2026/01/15 11:30 by stephan