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why-cbsplit-audits-split-test-outcomes-instead

Why CBSplit audits split test outcomes instead

The difference between running and auditing

Running a split test is mechanical.

Create variants. Split traffic. Measure conversions. Declare a winner.

Auditing a split test is different.

It asks whether the declared winner actually improved the business.

CBSplit was built to audit outcomes, not just events.

Event wins are not outcome wins

Most split tests optimize:

* Click-through rate
* Conversion rate
* Front-end revenue
* EPC

These are event-level metrics.

Outcome-level metrics include:

* Refund-adjusted revenue
* Rebill survival
* Subscription churn
* Net lifetime value
* Processor risk exposure

CBSplit audits whether event-level wins translate into outcome-level gains.

Auditing extends beyond the test window

Traditional tests end when:

* Statistical significance is reached
* A performance threshold is crossed
* A decision deadline arrives

CBSplit continues evaluating:

* Refund timing
* Rebill cycles
* Cohort durability
* Delayed financial reversals

Outcome truth often emerges after the test officially ends.

Auditing reveals hidden reversals

A declared winner may:

* Increase initial conversions
* Raise early ROAS
* Improve surface-level metrics

An audit may reveal:

* Higher refund rates
* Lower retention
* Increased churn
* Reduced net profit

Without auditing, these reversals remain invisible.

Auditing connects traffic source to lifecycle impact

Split tests rarely account for:

* Traffic quality differences
* Segment-specific refund clusters
* Geographic variance
* Retry-dependent approvals

CBSplit audits results by segment, not just aggregate.

This prevents weak segments from hiding behind blended averages.

Auditing protects scaling decisions

Scaling decisions based on incomplete tests can:

* Amplify refund exposure
* Increase processor scrutiny
* Erode long-term margin
* Create unstable revenue patterns

Auditing ensures that winners remain profitable under scale.

Auditing aligns experiments with business reality

A split test asks:

* Which variant performed better?

An audit asks:

* Did profitability improve?
* Did customer quality improve?
* Did lifecycle stability improve?
* Did risk decrease?

CBSplit focuses on business significance, not just statistical significance.

Infrastructure over automation

CBSplit does not compete with A/B tools.

It complements them by:

* Validating conclusions
* Recalculating net revenue
* Extending evaluation timelines
* Surfacing lifecycle risk

It ensures that testing decisions reflect financial reality.

why-cbsplit-audits-split-test-outcomes-instead.txt ยท Last modified: 2026/02/18 17:37 by stephan