Table of Contents
Why backend revenue invalidates many tests
The incomplete evaluation
Most tests are concluded at the front end.
Variant A converts better. Variant B loses. Traffic is shifted.
The decision feels rational.
Then backend revenue begins to unfold.
CBSplit was built to evaluate performance after the entire revenue lifecycle is visible.
Tests usually measure the first transaction
Classic tests optimize:
* Conversion rate * Front-end revenue * Cost per acquisition * Early ROAS
They rarely include:
* Refund-adjusted revenue * Subscription rebills * Churn timing * Chargeback exposure * Net lifetime value
Without backend data, conclusions are partial.
Backend revenue changes the economic picture
Backend revenue includes:
* Upsells * Downsell recovery * Subscription rebills * Repeat purchases
Some variants:
* Convert modestly * Produce average front-end metrics * Generate stronger backend retention
Other variants:
* Convert aggressively * Inflate early revenue * Collapse during rebills
Front-end winners can become backend losers.
Refund timing invalidates early conclusions
Refunds often appear:
* Days after purchase * After customer interaction * After expectation mismatch
A variant that increases impulse purchases may also increase refunds.
When refund-adjusted revenue is applied, test results can reverse.
CBSplit waits for refund reconciliation.
Subscription churn reshapes test outcomes
Subscription funnels generate revenue over cycles.
Differences in:
* Messaging tone * Billing transparency * Expectation alignment
Can alter:
* Rebill survival * Churn velocity * Cohort-based LTV
These effects compound over time.
Short tests cannot capture compounding lifecycle differences.
Backend fragility scales into losses
When a front-end winner is scaled:
* Refund clusters grow * Rebill failures accumulate * Processor scrutiny increases * Net revenue declines
Backend fragility often remains invisible during early testing.
CBSplit incorporates backend stability before declaring a winner.
Event-based metrics ignore revenue durability
Tests often optimize events.
Revenue durability depends on outcomes.
Events measure:
* Immediate behavior * Short-term engagement
Backend outcomes measure:
* Revenue persistence * Customer alignment * Risk exposure * Net profitability
CBSplit prioritizes outcomes over event frequency.
