Table of Contents
Why backend leaks compound silently
The slow erosion problem
Backend leaks rarely explode overnight.
They drip.
A small refund increase. A slight drop in rebill survival. A minor rise in churn.
Individually, they seem manageable.
Over time, they compound.
CBSplit was built to detect this silent erosion before it becomes structural damage.
Leaks begin as small percentages
Backend leaks often appear as:
* 2–3% higher refund ratio * 5% lower first rebill survival * Slight increase in payment failures * Gradual rise in cancellations
At low scale, these numbers look insignificant.
At higher volume, they multiply into meaningful revenue loss.
Refund drift reduces net margin quietly
A small refund increase:
* Reduces net revenue * Raises chargeback exposure * Weakens processor trust * Compresses margin
Because revenue initially appears strong, the leak remains unnoticed.
CBSplit recalculates performance after refund reconciliation.
Churn velocity compounds over billing cycles
In subscription funnels:
* Small churn increases shorten LTV * Shorter LTV shifts breakeven thresholds * Lower retention weakens scaling capacity
These effects compound across cohorts.
Front-end dashboards do not capture this compounding decline.
Retry dependence masks instability
Payment retries can:
* Temporarily recover failed transactions * Delay visible churn * Inflate apparent retention
If revenue depends heavily on retries, stability is fragile.
When retry performance changes, revenue drops quickly.
CBSplit distinguishes durable rebills from recovery-driven revenue.
Scaling amplifies silent leaks
At low volume, backend leaks may appear harmless.
When scaled:
* Refund counts increase dramatically * Churn impact multiplies * Net revenue erodes faster * Risk thresholds approach
Silent leaks become visible only after expansion.
CBSplit identifies structural weakness before scaling magnifies it.
Aggregated reporting hides gradual decline
Blended dashboards average:
* Strong cohorts * Weak cohorts * High-quality traffic * Fragile segments
Gradual backend decline can hide inside stable averages.
Segmentation is required to detect drift.
Compounding works in reverse
Compounding can grow profit.
It can also amplify loss.
Small backend weaknesses:
* Reduce LTV * Increase acquisition pressure * Lower allowable CPA * Force campaign contraction
The erosion is slow but persistent.
CBSplit tracks lifecycle performance across time horizons.