====== Why refunds hide silently inside profitable campaigns ======

===== The illusion of profitability =====

Many campaigns appear profitable on the surface.

Revenue is up.
Conversion rates look healthy.
Ad platforms show positive ROAS.

Yet money quietly leaks in the background.

Refunds are the reason.

CBSplit was built to expose this hidden layer.

===== Refunds arrive late by design =====

Refunds rarely happen at the moment of purchase.

They usually arrive:  
  * Days after checkout
  * After product delivery
  * After first subscription rebill
  * After customer support interaction

By the time refunds appear, campaigns are often already scaled.

CBSplit treats delayed outcomes as first-class data, not accounting noise.

===== Dashboards show revenue first, refunds later =====

Most analytics systems are front-loaded.

They emphasize:  
  * Gross revenue
  * Conversion counts
  * Initial approvals

Refunds are:  
  * Logged separately
  * Reported days or weeks later
  * Aggregated at account level

This delay allows refund losses to hide inside “profitable” campaigns.

===== Refunds are not evenly distributed =====

Refunds are rarely random.

They cluster around:  
  * Specific traffic sources
  * Certain offers
  * Particular upsell paths
  * Aggressive retry flows

A campaign can be profitable overall while one segment quietly destroys margin.

CBSplit surfaces refund patterns at the offer and path level.

===== High conversion funnels often produce high refunds =====

Funnels optimized aggressively for conversion often create:  
  * Impulse purchases
  * Misaligned expectations
  * Forced retries
  * Confusing upsells

These funnels convert well but refund badly.

CBSplit distinguishes between **easy conversions** and **durable revenue**.

===== Refunds distort lifetime value =====

Refund-heavy funnels inflate short-term metrics.

They hide:  
  * True LTV
  * Support costs
  * Payment processor risk
  * Future account stability

A campaign that looks profitable today can collapse under refunds tomorrow.

CBSplit tracks revenue after refunds, not before them.

===== Refunds trigger downstream damage =====

Refunds do not only remove revenue.

They increase:  
  * Chargeback risk
  * Processor scrutiny
  * Account flags
  * Traffic quality penalties

Traditional tools rarely connect refunds to these downstream effects.

CBSplit does.

===== Why refunds are invisible to most tools =====

Most tools fail to capture refunds because:  
  * Refunds are server-side events
  * Timing is delayed
  * Attribution is complex
  * Platforms optimize for speed, not truth

CBSplit was designed to wait for financial truth, even when it is inconvenient.