====== Why rebills change the real winner of a test ======

===== The early winner illusion =====

Most tests declare a winner based on early results.

Higher conversion rate.
Better EPC.
Stronger initial revenue.

A winner is chosen.
Traffic is shifted.
Scale begins.

Then rebills arrive.

CBSplit was built to show why early winners often lose later.

===== Front-end tests ignore subscription survival =====

Many offers include subscriptions.

Tests usually measure:

  
  * Initial purchase conversion
  * Average order value
  * Cost per acquisition
  * Early profitability

They rarely measure:

  
  * First rebill success
  * Second rebill retention
  * Long-term churn
  * Refund timing

Rebills redefine what “winning” means.

===== Two variants can win differently over time =====

Variant A may win on day one by:

  
  * Converting more users
  * Driving higher front-end revenue

Variant B may:

  
  * Convert fewer users
  * Generate slightly lower initial revenue
  * Produce stronger subscription retention

Early dashboards crown Variant A.

Rebills often crown Variant B.

CBSplit waits for time to reveal the truth.

===== Rebills expose alignment, not persuasion =====

Front-end wins often reflect persuasion strength.

Rebills reflect alignment strength.

Alignment means:

  
  * Expectations match delivery
  * Customers understand billing terms
  * Value continues beyond impulse

Persuasion can win the click.

Alignment wins the rebill.

CBSplit measures both.

===== Rebills amplify small quality differences =====

Minor differences in:

  
  * Messaging clarity
  * Offer framing
  * Upsell positioning
  * Billing transparency

Can produce large differences in:

  
  * Churn rate
  * Refund rate
  * Subscription longevity

These effects compound over time.

CBSplit tracks compounding behavior, not just initial events.

===== Early testing windows hide delayed revenue =====

Short testing windows favor:

  
  * Quick approvals
  * Aggressive tactics
  * High-pressure offers

Longer observation windows reveal:

  
  * Sustained revenue
  * Stable cohorts
  * Durable customer behavior

CBSplit extends the evaluation horizon beyond the test window.

===== Rebills alter lifetime value calculations =====

When rebills are included:

  
  * LTV shifts
  * ROAS changes
  * Scaling thresholds move
  * Risk exposure becomes visible

A variant that looks profitable early can become unprofitable after churn is accounted for.

CBSplit recalculates performance after rebill cycles complete.

===== Why most tests stop too early =====

Tests stop early because:

  
  * Teams want fast decisions
  * Traffic costs money
  * Dashboards emphasize immediacy
  * Patience feels expensive

But premature decisions often cost more in the long run.

CBSplit encourages outcome-based evaluation, not event-based victories.