====== Why funnel drop-offs mislead marketers ======

===== The visible friction bias =====

Funnels are often judged by drop-off charts.

Visitors enter.
Some exit.
The largest drop becomes the problem.

Optimize that step.
Reduce friction.
Increase progression.

It feels logical.

It is often incomplete.

CBSplit was built because drop-offs do not equal lost profit.

===== Not all drop-offs are bad =====

A drop-off can mean:

  
  * Friction
  * Confusion
  * Weak messaging

It can also mean:

  
  * Filtering out low-intent buyers
  * Preventing refund-prone customers
  * Protecting subscription durability
  * Preserving processor health

Reducing every drop-off may increase revenue volume while decreasing revenue quality.

===== High progression does not equal high profitability =====

Improving step completion may:

  
  * Increase checkout starts
  * Raise upsell exposure
  * Boost surface-level conversions

If it also increases:

  
  * Refund rates
  * Early churn
  * Chargeback exposure
  * Support burden

Net revenue declines.

Drop-off reduction alone cannot determine business impact.

===== Funnel charts ignore lifecycle outcomes =====

Drop-off analysis focuses on:

  
  * Page progression
  * Click events
  * Immediate conversion behavior

It ignores:

  
  * Refund timing
  * Rebill survival
  * Cohort retention
  * Long-term LTV

A funnel that looks smooth may still collapse in the backend.

CBSplit connects progression to lifecycle durability.

===== Friction sometimes protects alignment =====

Certain friction points:

  
  * Clear billing disclosures
  * Detailed value explanation
  * Subscription reminders
  * Intent confirmation steps

May reduce immediate progression.

They may also reduce:

  
  * Refund probability
  * Churn velocity
  * Buyer regret

Removing protective friction can weaken the funnel over time.

===== Traffic quality influences drop-off meaning =====

Different traffic sources create different behaviors.

Some traffic may:

  
  * Drop early but produce strong backend stability
  * Progress easily but churn quickly

Blended funnel analytics hide this nuance.

CBSplit segments drop-off behavior by traffic source and lifecycle performance.

===== Scaling amplifies hidden costs =====

Reducing drop-offs without evaluating backend impact can:

  
  * Increase refund clusters
  * Inflate churn rates
  * Raise processor scrutiny
  * Reduce net margin

At scale, small lifecycle weaknesses compound rapidly.

===== Optimization must connect to net revenue =====

True evaluation requires:

  
  * Refund-adjusted revenue
  * Rebill-adjusted LTV
  * Cohort-based stability
  * Risk-aware scaling

Drop-off reduction is a tactical adjustment.

Profitability is a lifecycle outcome.