====== Why CBSplit reveals false EPC offers ======

===== The EPC illusion =====

EPC is one of the most powerful numbers in affiliate marketing.

A high EPC suggests:

  
  * Strong demand
  * High profitability
  * Easy scaling

Affiliates chase high EPC offers aggressively.

But EPC can lie.

CBSplit was built to expose when it does.

===== EPC is an average, not a guarantee =====

EPC blends performance across:

  
  * Multiple traffic sources
  * Different buyer intents
  * Varying refund behavior
  * Mixed subscription outcomes

A high average can hide unstable segments.

CBSplit breaks EPC into outcome-level behavior.

===== False EPC is driven by front-end spikes =====

Some offers inflate EPC through:

  
  * High initial payouts
  * Aggressive upsells
  * Heavy retry recovery
  * Short-term promotional bursts

These mechanisms increase early revenue.

They do not guarantee durable revenue.

CBSplit evaluates what remains after time passes.

===== Refund-adjusted EPC tells a different story =====

High EPC offers often reveal:

  
  * Elevated refund rates
  * Refund clustering by traffic type
  * High support friction
  * Increased processor scrutiny

When refunds are reconciled, true earnings shrink.

CBSplit recalculates EPC after refunds and rebills settle.

===== Retry-dependent revenue inflates EPC =====

Some offers rely heavily on:

  
  * Soft-decline retries
  * Multiple payment attempts
  * Fallback billing flows

These mechanisms boost approval counts.

They also introduce fragility.

CBSplit distinguishes clean approvals from retry-driven approvals.

===== Subscription churn reshapes EPC over time =====

EPC calculated from front-end revenue ignores:

  
  * First rebill failure
  * Early churn spikes
  * Subscription cancellation waves

Two offers with similar EPC today can diverge sharply after rebills.

CBSplit tracks lifecycle-adjusted performance.

===== Traffic-source variance hides inside EPC =====

An offer may show strong EPC overall while:

  
  * Performing poorly on certain geographies
  * Producing refunds from specific ad angles
  * Generating low retention from certain traffic types

Blended EPC hides these weaknesses.

CBSplit preserves segmentation.

===== Why false EPC persists =====

False EPC persists because:

  
  * It is easy to calculate
  * It is fast to compare
  * It looks objective
  * It supports quick decisions

But speed often sacrifices accuracy.

CBSplit sacrifices immediacy for outcome truth.